AN UNHAPPY NATION – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:   Whoever wins will have the same task Reagan had in 1981 – rebuilding the national morale.  From Gallup:   

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- With the presidential election less than a month away, 28% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. This continues the low satisfaction levels that started near the end of the George W. Bush administration and have persisted under President Barack Obama. Satisfaction remains significantly below the historical average of 37% since Gallup began measuring it in 1979.

Americans' current level of satisfaction is similar to where it has been for most of 2016, with the notable exception of July. That month, 17% of Americans were satisfied according to the July 13-17 poll, conducted shortly after incidents in which police officers killed black men in Louisiana and Minnesota, and after five police officers in Dallas were fatally shot. July's satisfaction rating was the lowest since October 2013. By August, with news coverage focused more on other events such as the political conventions, satisfaction rebounded to the levels seen before July.

Hillary Clinton has said she is the only candidate who will continue Obama's policies, so her supporters might be worried that less than a third of Americans are satisfied with the country's direction near the end of Obama's second term. But a month before the 2012 election, in which Obama handily defeated Mitt Romney, the U.S. satisfaction level was 30%, similar to today's figure. Satisfaction did rise slightly to 33% immediately before the election, possibly because Americans approved of the way Obama handled the effects of Superstorm Sandy.

Heading into the Nov. 8 general election this year, 49% of Democrats, 24% of independents and 8% of Republicans are satisfied with the country's direction. Republican numbers are almost identical to four years ago -- when 7% were satisfied. Democrats (53%) and independents (29%) were slightly more likely to be satisfied in October 2012 than they are now.

COMMENT:  Clinton leads in most of the polls.  Or maybe it's more accurate to say that Trump is losing in most of the polls.  Hillary has been lucky in her opponent.

The latest polls also show that Republicans are doing well, on balance, in Senate and House races.  They are struggling to maintain control of the Senate, in a year when they hold most of the vulnerable seats, and they may just squeeze by.  We may see more ticket splitting this year than in any recent election.

You've seen some speculation that Democrats may take over the House, and it's possible, but the odds are very long. 

October 14, 2016